India’s telecom landscape just entered a new phase. On Wednesday, Bharti Airtel joined its arch-rival Reliance Jio in scrapping the cheapest prepaid plan priced at ₹249, which offered 1 GB of daily data. The move marks a clear shift in strategy: the minimum entry point for mobile data usage is now higher, with plans starting at 1.5 GB per day, priced more steeply for consumers.
Analysts believe this is not just a tariff tweak but the culmination of a decade-long price war that has reshaped the industry. In this article, we will look into how Jio and Airtel’s latest tariff moves are reshaping India’s telecom industry.
Credits: Stocktwits
A Decade-Long Chess Game
According to SEBI-registered analyst Stocklution, Jio’s latest tariff hike is the “final move in a decade-long chess game.” The reference is apt—because back in 2016, Jio stormed into the market with free voice calls and dirt-cheap 4G data. What followed was a brutal price war that bled the industry, forced consolidation, and permanently reset consumer expectations.
Telecom was once a crowded space with more than a dozen operators. But by 2025, only a few giants remain: Reliance Jio, Airtel, and Vodafone Idea. The survivors are now playing for profitability, not just subscribers.
Subscriber Shifts: Jio’s Meteoric Rise
The shifts in market share over the last decade are nothing short of historic.
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Reliance Jio: From 0% in 2016 to 42% in 2025
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Bharti Airtel: From 24% to 33%
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Vodafone Idea: From 32% to 15%
Jio’s aggressive pricing and nationwide rollout not only disrupted incumbents but also drove millions of new users onto its network. Airtel, despite initial struggles, has managed a strong recovery, while Vodafone Idea has steadily lost ground, weighed down by debt and spectrum liabilities.
Profitability and ARPU Revival
While Jio’s entry delighted consumers, it crushed industry profitability. The metric most closely watched—Average Revenue Per User (ARPU)—hit historic lows.
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Jio’s ARPU rose from ₹130 in 2018 to ₹182 in 2025.
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Airtel’s ARPU jumped from ₹105 to ₹208.
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Vodafone Idea’s ARPU increased modestly from ₹89 to ₹145.
Stocklution argues that Jio’s decision to scrap its cheapest plan is a deliberate power play to drag the entire sector’s ARPU higher. With fewer low-cost options, consumers will naturally migrate to higher-value plans, lifting revenues across the industry.
Technical Outlook: What the Charts Say
Stocklution’s technical analysis paints a telling picture of the three majors.
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Reliance Industries (Jio’s parent): The stock recently broke out of a multi-month resistance and retested the zone as support. The key level to watch is ₹1,265—a hold above confirms the bullish case, while a break below could hint at investor hesitation.
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Bharti Airtel: The stock shows resilience, consolidating between October 2024 and February 2025 even as peers wavered. This is a classic sign of institutional accumulation. Airtel’s critical support lies at ₹1,770, keeping its uptrend intact.
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Vodafone Idea: The story is starkly different. Its monthly chart reflects a painful long-term downtrend. Still hovering near its COVID-era lows, the stock underscores the operator’s fight for survival and massive underperformance.
The Retail Mood
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment mirrors these realities:
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Reliance: Bullish, with normal message volume.
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Airtel: Neutral, with normal volume.
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Vodafone Idea: Neutral, but with high message volume—suggesting more chatter than conviction.
So far in 2025, Airtel has gained 21.3%, Reliance is up 16.5%, while Vodafone Idea has slipped 13.9%.
Credits: Hindustan Times
The Road Ahead
The scrapping of entry-level prepaid plans is more than a small price tweak. It signals a coordinated industry shift toward sustainable profitability. With subscriber battles largely settled, the new warfront is ARPU—and Jio’s latest move could set the tone for the next five years.
For investors, Airtel and Reliance appear well-placed with strong fundamentals and technical support zones. Vodafone Idea, meanwhile, remains in survival mode, offering little visibility beyond speculation.
