Apple’s iPhone 16 Pro and Pro Max are facing unexpected challenges with demand, according to industry analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. His analysis, based on pre-order data and supply chain insights, reveals that these high-end models are falling short of last year’s sales figures, even as the standard iPhone 16 and 16 Plus are seeing significant success.
Demand Falls for Premium Models
Kuo’s findings indicate a clear drop in interest for the iPhone 16 Pro series compared to previous models. The iPhone 16 Pro Max has seen a 16% decrease in pre-order sales compared to last year’s iPhone 15 Pro Max. Even more concerning is the iPhone 16 Pro, which has experienced a sharp 27% decline. As a result, first-weekend sales for the iPhone 16 series are around 37 million units, marking a 12.7% drop from the previous year.
Shorter Delivery Times Indicate Sluggish Demand
A notable sign of the lower demand for the iPhone 16 Pro series is the much shorter delivery times this year. Normally, longer delivery times indicate high demand and potential supply shortages, but this year’s quicker fulfillment suggests that Apple’s expectations for these models might have been too high.
Kuo attributes this discrepancy to Apple’s overly optimistic production forecasts for the Pro Max model, which led to an increase in pre-order stock that has not been met with equivalent demand.
One major factor contributing to the underwhelming performance of the iPhone 16 Pro models is the delay of the highly anticipated “Apple Intelligence” feature. This advanced AI technology, expected to be a major selling point, will not be available until iOS 18.1 is released in October, weeks after the iPhone 16’s initial launch.
Additionally, Apple is contending with fierce competition in China, where local smartphone brands are offering compelling alternatives at lower prices. This competitive pressure has further dampened the appeal of Apple’s high-end models.
Standard Models See Increased Interest
In contrast to the Pro models, the standard iPhone 16 and 16 Plus have shown notable growth in demand. These models, while not expected to drive the bulk of Apple’s iPhone shipments, have still demonstrated a positive year-over-year increase.
This boost in sales may be attributed to features previously exclusive to the Pro models, like the Camera Control button, which are now available across the entire iPhone 16 range. Additionally, the new color options for the iPhone 16 series have been well received, enhancing the appeal of these more affordable models.
No Immediate Supply Chain Changes Expected
Despite the weaker performance of the iPhone 16 Pro series, Kuo does not anticipate significant changes in Apple’s production strategy in the near term. The company had increased its production of the iPhone 16 Pro Max to 6 million units—an impressive 106% rise from last year’s production of the iPhone 15 Pro Max. This production boost was supported by improved yields in the manufacturing of the Pro Max’s tetraprism camera system.
Opportunities and Challenges
Apple still has potential to boost sales for the iPhone 16 Pro series with upcoming releases and promotions. The introduction of Apple Intelligence later this year, along with the holiday shopping season, including Black Friday and the year-end sales in the U.S. and Europe, as well as China’s Double 11 shopping festival, could stimulate interest.
Kuo notes that if these efforts do not significantly improve sales, Apple may need to adopt more aggressive strategies in 2025. This could involve new product features, pricing strategies, or marketing tactics to regain consumer interest in its premium models.
