The cryptocurrency investing community may want to buckle up as they may be in for a bumpy couple of months ahead. According to research provided by Standard Chartered, one of the largest financial institutions focused on analyzing the digital asset space, the current market is not yet at its bottom (in terms of pricing). The major cryptocurrencies (e.g., Bitcoin, Ether) are anticipated to be aligned for a significant price correction, followed by a potential price recovery later this year.
The research report from Standard Chartered suggests that the current market lethargy is merely acting as a prelude to a “final capitulation” phase, implying short-term pain before long-term gains. Furthermore, while Standard Chartered continues to have a positive long-term market resolution through year-end 2026, there are many near-term obstacles to be faced, including macroeconomic headwinds and institutional discipline.
Bitcoin and Ether: The New Bottom Targets
In the near future, Standard Chartered’s head digital asset research, Geoffrey Kendrick, updated his previously established price targets. This revision indicates that current developments may be an attractive transaction opportunity if you are willing to invest some time until these developments play out. According to the report, Bitcoin (BTC) is projected to fall to approximately $50,000 (or potentially lower) over the coming months. In addition, the report also forecasts that ETH (the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization) could drop to near $1400. Kendrick stated that both of these levels should be seen primarily as entry-level buying points rather than indicators of an extended bear market; and he expects the long-term, 2026 price for BTC will rise to $100,000 and that ETH will rise to $4,000 once more. It is worth noting, however, that these recovery targets have been trimmed from previous estimates; in December, the bank had projected a $150,000 target for Bitcoin, which itself was a downgrade from an earlier $300,000 prediction.
Altcoins Feel the Squeeze
The updated outlook is not only for the leaders of the market. Standard Chartered also adjusted its forecast for other large and major alternatives in its investments to bring them to similar multiples to those in the overall market. The price forecast from the end of the 2026 for Solana was lowered to $135 from the prior amount of $250.
Additionally, other large assets have seen larger reductions than Solana. The new target price for XRP is $2.80 vs the old price of $8.00. Additionally the new target for BNB has been lowered to $1,050 from $1,775, with Avalanche’s target falling to $18 from $100.
These changes will be categorized as “mark-to-market” to properly account for the relative movement of these types of assets to the rest of their counterpart types such as bitcoin and ether. Market conditions have made it necessary to implement this type of adjustment.
The ETF Factor: Unrealized Losses Mount
In the short-term, a main component of this bearish sentiment comes from what is happening in the markets with the spot Bitcoin ETFs. According to the report, ETF holdings have dropped nearly 100k BTC since they peaked in October 2025.
Another significant metric for these institutional products that Kendrick is following closely is the unrealized loss the average buyer of these ETFs has experienced. The average buyer has an entry point around $90k. As the price has dropped below the average purchase price, historically, this price point has created a psychological pivot point which causes ETF holders to become more likely to sell their holdings than to continue to accumulate or “buy the dip.” The capitulation of ETF holders could also create selling pressure which pushes Bitcoin towards its $50k target.
Waiting for the Fed: The Kevin Warsh Effect
Aside from the mechanics of the crypto markets themselves, there remains a significant challenge within the greater economy. The report indicates that the Federal Reserve of the United States likely will not be able to provide the liquidity support that markets are requesting until the middle of the year.
Kendrick specifically cites a potential change in leadership at the Federal Reserve, noting that it is highly unlikely that any monetary policy shift will take place until Kevin Warsh potentially takes over in June. Therefore, until that transition occurs, the higher rates for a long time period and the corresponding low risk appetite will continue to be present. Recent mixed economic data from the U.S. has only reinforced the view that rate cuts—and the liquidity they bring—are not imminent.
A Resilience Test for the Market
Despite the grim near-term numbers, the report offers a silver lining. Kendrick argues that today’s downturn is much more unique than what we experienced in 2022, with the characteristics of past collapses (Terra/Luna and FTX) being that of systemic shocks as opposed to the flows and macroeconomic indicators that are today leading to the weakness in the market.
This absence of structural failure suggests that the market is maturing and becoming more resilient. “Once the lows have been reached, we expect the asset class to recover for the rest of 2026,” Kendrick concluded. For investors with a high tolerance for volatility, the coming months may offer one last chance to accumulate at lower valuations before the next leg up.
