OpenAI has a money problem, a really big one. The company behind ChatGPT needs to secure $207 billion in new financing by 2030 just to keep up with the massive cloud computing commitments it has already made, according to a new analysis from HSBC Global Investment Research.
This financial squeeze could send shockwaves through some of the biggest names in technology.
The funding gap has roots in the ambitious expansion plan of OpenAI. The AI powerhouse has earmarked $300 billion for Oracle, $250 billion for Microsoft, and $38 billion for AWS to buy cloud computing services-the necessary infrastructure for training and running its AI models.
With HSBC’s revised revenue estimates, which are 4 percent above their previous forecasts, the numbers just don’t add up.
HSBC Forecasts 3 Billion Users for OpenAI by 2030, But a $207 Billion Funding Gap Threatens Tech Partners
A research paper by HSBC, shared with The Register, puts into perspective just how precarious things could get. “OpenAI would need $207 billion of new financing by 2030,” the report said. “One unknown parameter is the flexibility that OpenAI may have to adjust its commitment versus effective demand or financial capacity.”
Possible solutions for this, the bank suggests, include capital injections from investors, debt issuance, or higher revenue than projected at this time. But none of these options are assured.
On the optimistic side, HSBC is predicting explosive growth for ChatGPT. The study forecasts that OpenAI’s consumer products will gain 3 billion regular users by 2030 from 800 million last month. That would represent 44 percent of the world’s population over 15 years old, a staggering market penetration.
The bank also projects subscription rates will be higher, rising to 10 percent from the current 8 percent, while corporate demand for APIs and licensing deals increases. OpenAI could also collect a larger share of digital ad revenue as AI becomes more central to the way people use technology.
Even with these rosy projections, the funding gap remains large. OpenAI could close part of the gap by adding another half-billion users, bringing in an additional $36 billion of revenue. The company could get more efficient in compute, reducing its infrastructure costs that are gobbling so much capital.
But here’s where things get interesting, and potentially troubling, for the broader tech industry: if OpenAI can’t close this funding gap, the pain won’t be confined to the AI startup alone.
“The most exposed partners to OpenAI success or failure under our coverage are Oracle, Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia, and AMD,” HSBC noted. SoftBank, which owns an 11 percent stake in OpenAI, is also heavily exposed to the company’s fortunes.
Oracle’s Stock Rollercoaster and the $455 Billion AI Investment Bet
Oracle has already taken that roller coaster ride. After announcing its $300 billion deal with OpenAI in September, part of $455 billion in cloud contracts, many tied to AI computing, the company’s share price jumped 30 percent.
The stock rally briefly made the co-founder Larry Ellison the world’s richest person, and investment analysts couldn’t hold back their enthusiasm.
That euphoria was short-lived. Oracle has since given up all the value gained during that time, and Ellison fell to third place in the wealth rankings, behind Google’s Larry Page and Elon Musk.
Notwithstanding the risks, HSBC rates Oracle, Microsoft, Amazon, and Nvidia as “buy”, implying that the analysts still see long-term value in these companies even if OpenAI stumbles. But this uncertainty over OpenAI’s ability to meet its financial obligations adds a new layer of risk to these tech giants.
It highlights the enormous financial stakes in the race to dominate AI. Companies are placing multibillion-dollar bets on the infrastructure well before the revenue models are fully proven. OpenAI’s challenge isn’t unique-it reflects broader questions about whether generative AI will generate enough revenue to justify the astronomical investments being poured into the technology.
For now, Microsoft, Oracle, Amazon and the others that are all in on OpenAI will be watching closely, hoping the funding gap closes sooner rather than later. Their balance sheets-and their shareholders-are counting on it.
