The Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii, which has been at the forefront of global climate monitoring since the 1950s, is facing possible shutdown under the Trump administration’s proposed 2025 federal budget. The lab is best known for producing the Keeling Curve, a long-running and scientifically vital measurement of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels.
As part of the proposed budget cuts, funding for Mauna Loa and other components of the United States’ greenhouse gas monitoring infrastructure could be eliminated. These include observation sites that stretch from Alaska to the South Pole, which together form a comprehensive network operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
The proposed reductions reflect a broader intent to refocus NOAA away from climate science and toward operational weather forecasting and public warnings. The plan aligns with the ideas presented in Project 2025, a policy blueprint from conservative groups proposing an overhaul of federal agencies.
The Keeling Curve: A Landmark Record
The Mauna Loa Observatory’s work began in 1958 when scientist Charles David Keeling started recording daily CO₂ levels. His research produced the now-famous Keeling Curve, a continuously rising graph that shows the buildup of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere—evidence of ongoing human-driven climate change.
At the beginning of the Keeling Curve, CO₂ levels were measured at approximately 313 parts per million (ppm). In 2024, those levels averaged 424.61 ppm. For the first time in 2025, monthly averages at Mauna Loa exceeded 430 ppm, highlighting the increasing pace of emissions.
These measurements are currently maintained through collaboration between NOAA and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego, with additional funding from private sources including Schmidt Sciences and Earth Networks.
NOAA’s Climate Science Under Threat
The Trump administration’s budget proposal, detailed in documents submitted to Congress, outlines a plan to eliminate NOAA’s Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR). This division has historically supported climate monitoring, greenhouse gas measurements, and the development of long-term models used to understand climate trends.
The defunding of OAR would end federal support for a wide range of NOAA-led research activities, many of which also contribute to improving long-term weather forecasts and analyzing extreme weather events. If approved, these cuts would significantly curtail the agency’s ability to collect climate data and support research.
Under the new proposal, NOAA would narrow its mission to focus primarily on weather-related tasks, such as storm tracking, forecasting, and public warnings. Climate science would be deprioritized, in line with Project 2025’s call for reducing federal engagement in environmental policy and climate research.
Scientific Community Faces Difficult Choices
In the event NOAA funding is withdrawn from Mauna Loa, the Scripps Institution of Oceanography may attempt to secure alternate support to keep CO₂ monitoring instruments at the same high-altitude location on Hawaii’s Big Island. Relocating the instruments elsewhere in Hawaii remains a backup option, though such a move could create a break in the historical record.
Continuity is critical in long-term climate monitoring. The Keeling Curve’s strength lies in its uninterrupted nature, which allows scientists to track annual trends with high confidence. Any disruption in the record could reduce its scientific utility and complicate global carbon tracking efforts.
Other monitoring stations that form part of NOAA’s global observation network are also in jeopardy. These sites contribute data to international climate models and are used to verify greenhouse gas emissions reported by countries under agreements like the Paris Climate Accord.
Broader Implications for Climate Monitoring
NOAA has long been regarded as one of the world’s leading climate science agencies. Its data feeds into models used by meteorologists, environmental agencies, and scientists globally. The proposed cuts would not only weaken U.S. leadership in climate science but also impact international partnerships that rely on NOAA’s consistent data output.
Furthermore, NOAA’s climate and weather divisions are deeply interconnected. For example, climate models help improve seasonal weather forecasts and provide insights into how rising temperatures influence the frequency and severity of extreme events like hurricanes, droughts, and wildfires.
Reducing investment in climate science could also hinder the U.S. government’s ability to respond to such disasters, which are expected to increase in both frequency and intensity as global warming continues.
Alignment with Project 2025
The budget proposal echoes themes from Project 2025, a policy document crafted by a coalition of conservative organizations with close ties to Trump-aligned political groups. The plan advocates for sweeping structural changes in federal agencies and suggests removing or scaling back regulatory and scientific efforts related to climate change.
Specifically, Project 2025 promotes the idea of narrowing the functions of agencies like NOAA to core services, such as issuing public weather alerts, while moving away from long-term climate forecasting, environmental regulation, and greenhouse gas monitoring.
If enacted, this shift would fundamentally alter NOAA’s role in both domestic and global scientific efforts. Critics argue that such changes would set back decades of progress in understanding and responding to environmental changes.
CO₂ Levels Hit Record Highs
The proposed funding cuts come at a time when global atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are at their highest point in recorded history. Mauna Loa’s data shows that 2025 marks the first time monthly average CO₂ levels have exceeded 430 ppm—a level unseen in millions of years of Earth’s history.
This upward trend continues despite international climate agreements and national efforts to reduce fossil fuel use. As warming accelerates, the need for reliable climate data becomes increasingly urgent. Losing access to long-term, high-quality records like those produced at Mauna Loa could hinder global mitigation and adaptation efforts.
