While Samsung Electronics continues to dominate the foldable smartphone market with the recent release of its Galaxy Z Fold7 and Z Flip7, Apple Inc. is choosing a markedly different approach. According to industry sources and analysts, Apple is unlikely to release its first foldable iPhone until late 2026, and even then, initial availability will be limited.
In an era where tech companies rush to capitalize on innovation trends, Apple appears to be playing the long game—focusing on refinement, durability, and market readiness over speed. But is this cautious strategy a sign of restraint or a missed opportunity?
Samsung, which pioneered foldable smartphones with its first Galaxy Fold in 2019, has now unveiled its seventh-generation devices: the Galaxy Z Fold7 and Galaxy Z Flip7, introduced on July 7.
The Fold7 offers an expansive 8-inch internal display that opens like a book, catering to users seeking a hybrid between a phone and tablet. Meanwhile, the Flip7 is a more compact, clamshell-style device designed for convenience and portability. Together, these models underscore Samsung’s commitment to maturing and leading the foldable category.
With each generation, Samsung has improved its hardware, hinge mechanisms, and software adaptation, and now stands virtually unchallenged in the premium foldable market—at least for now.
Apple’s Foldable iPhone: Not Before 2026
According to UBS analyst Jimmy Yoon, Apple plans to introduce its own foldable device referred to in some circles as the iPhone Fold in the second half of 2026. Yoon noted in a client memo that Apple’s supply chain partners are nearing final specification decisions, a sign that development is progressing steadily, albeit slowly.
But even with an official launch window in sight, Apple is reportedly planning a limited production run of just 10 million to 15 million units during the device’s first full year. That’s a fraction of Apple’s typical iPhone volumes, which often exceed 200 million units annually.
A High-End, High-Cost Device
The limited production isn’t only about supply chain constraints or technological hurdles, it’s also a reflection of anticipated demand. Yoon suggests that the iPhone Fold could cost between $2,000 and $2,400, placing it firmly in the ultra-premium smartphone category.
That price point is well above most consumers’ budgets, even in Apple’s loyal customer base. By comparison, Samsung’s Fold7 starts at around $1,800, and the Flip7 is slightly more affordable. Apple’s pricing strategy suggests the foldable iPhone may target enthusiasts and early adopters rather than the mainstream.
Apple is known for its conservative approach to new hardware categories. Unlike competitors that often launch early and iterate later, Apple typically waits until technology is mature, stable, and scalable before entering a new segment.
This strategy has served Apple well in the past. The original iPhone, iPad, and Apple Watch weren’t the first in their categories but they set new benchmarks when they launched. Analysts believe Apple is taking a similar path with foldables, focusing on:
- Durability of folding displays and hinges
- Battery life in thinner form factors
- Software optimization for dual-screen modes
- Global supply chain readiness
All these factors likely contribute to the delayed launch, and Apple may be betting that the foldable market will still be ripe by the time it enters.
Despite the buzz around folding phones, the stock market reaction was lukewarm. On the day of UBS’s note, Apple shares slipped 1.2%, closing at $208.62. UBS continues to rate Apple as ‘Neutral’, with a price target of $210, indicating limited upside in the near term.
Investors may be cautious due to macroeconomic conditions, increased competition in AI and consumer electronics, and regulatory scrutiny in both the U.S. and Europe. Meanwhile, Samsung’s ability to iterate and improve its foldables annually gives it a strong lead in a niche but growing segment.
The global foldable smartphone market remains relatively small, but it’s growing rapidly. According to market research firms like IDC and Canalys, foldables could account for over 3% of global smartphone shipments by 2025, and some forecasts suggest as many as 50 million units shipped annually by the late 2020s.
If these projections hold true, Apple’s late entry may still be timely especially if it can deliver a device that sets new standards for usability, design, and reliability. Moreover, as costs decrease and durability improves, foldables could evolve from niche to mainstream, much like large-screen smartphones once did.
While Samsung leads the charge in foldable innovation, Apple is biding its time, perfecting its entry into the market. The expected release of a book-style foldable iPhone in 2026, albeit in limited numbers and at a premium price, reflects a strategic choice: don’t be first be best.
Whether that strategy will pay off in the fast-moving world of consumer tech remains to be seen. But one thing is clear: when Apple does enter the foldable arena, it will arrive with purpose and likely make a big impact.
