The current conflict between Cambodia and Thailand is a deeply troubling development in Southeast Asia. The recent clashes along the shared border between the two countries have reignited an old territorial dispute that had previously remained contained to diplomatic disagreements and minor skirmishes. What began as tensions over ancient temples and unclear border lines has now escalated into deadly violence. At least 32 people have lost their lives, and over 130,000 have been displaced due to the recent fighting. As the situation continues to unfold, the ripple effects of this conflict are starting to raise concerns in other parts of Asia, including India. While India is not directly involved, its political, economic, and strategic interests in the region could be impacted if the hostilities continue or worsen.
The roots of this conflict go back over a century to the colonial era. Cambodia was once a part of French Indochina, while Thailand, then known as Siam, remained independent. During this period, border agreements were drafted between French authorities and the Thai government, but the demarcation lines were often vague and left room for future disputes. One of the central points of contention is the Preah Vihear temple. This ancient Hindu temple sits on a rocky plateau near the border and has long been a source of dispute. In 1962, the International Court of Justice ruled in favor of Cambodia, granting it sovereignty over the temple. However, nearby areas such as the Prasat Ta Muen Thom temple remain contested, leading to periodic flare-ups of violence. In 2008 and 2011, armed conflicts over the same regions resulted in casualties and damage, but those incidents were quickly brought under control.
In July 2025, the situation worsened again. Fighting broke out near the Prasat Ta Muen Thom temple, leading to deaths on both sides. Reports indicate that 19 people were killed in Thailand, many of them civilians, while 13 Cambodians also lost their lives. The use of heavy artillery and air strikes by both sides shows how serious the current escalation has become. Over 130,000 people have been displaced, forced to flee their homes due to the violence. Camps have been set up in nearby provinces, and humanitarian agencies are struggling to meet the basic needs of the displaced population. Thailand’s acting Prime Minister, Phumtham Wechayachai, has warned that the situation could develop into a full-scale war. Cambodia’s Prime Minister, Hun Manet, initially agreed to a ceasefire but later accused Thailand of breaking the terms. Although the United Nations Security Council held an emergency meeting, no formal resolution has been passed. Thailand has rejected any international mediation, insisting that the matter should be resolved through direct talks with Cambodia. Several countries including the United States, China, Australia, and members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have urged both sides to avoid further violence.
India has not issued an official statement on the conflict, but that does not mean it is unaffected. India has growing political, cultural, and trade relations with both Cambodia and Thailand. Under the “Act East” policy, India has tried to strengthen its ties with Southeast Asian countries. The ongoing conflict, if not brought under control, could complicate India’s position in the region. Diplomatic balance will be necessary to maintain friendly relations with both countries without appearing to take sides. This becomes more difficult considering that Cambodia has close ties with China, a country with which India has its own set of ongoing disputes.
India’s relationship with Thailand is much stronger in terms of economic exchanges. Bilateral trade between the two countries is valued at over $15 billion annually. Thailand is also a major destination for Indian tourists, and India has growing business interests in sectors like automobiles, chemicals, and food processing there. If the conflict affects infrastructure, transport routes, or causes instability in Thailand, it may disrupt these commercial activities. Cambodia, though a smaller trading partner, is also becoming more important for Indian textile and agricultural companies. Any worsening of the situation could hurt investor confidence and put Indian businesses at risk.
Beyond trade, the conflict can disturb the broader stability of Southeast Asia, which is important for India’s strategic goals. India sees this region as vital for balancing China’s growing power in Asia. Cambodia’s close relationship with China has already raised concerns in Indian strategic circles. If the conflict pushes Cambodia to seek more military or economic assistance from China, it could lead to a stronger Chinese presence in the region. That would complicate India’s efforts to work with ASEAN countries and expand its influence through projects like the India-Myanmar-Thailand trilateral highway. The instability caused by the conflict could also lead to increased military movement and strain in nearby regions, including the Andaman Sea, which is strategically important to India. The Indian Navy may be forced to increase its patrols if tensions rise in surrounding waters.
There are also humanitarian aspects to consider. Over 130,000 people have already been forced to leave their homes. If the violence spreads further, this number could rise. While India is not a neighboring country, it has historically responded to humanitarian crises in the region, including providing aid during the Cambodian genocide in the late 1970s and early 1980s. India may again be expected to provide support, either through relief supplies or by funding international aid operations. If a large-scale refugee crisis emerges, it could spill into nearby countries, creating further pressure in a region already dealing with issues like food shortages and climate-related challenges.
International law is another area where India might feel concerned. The dispute between Cambodia and Thailand involves historical treaties and rulings from international courts. India, which has its own territorial disputes with countries like China and Pakistan, closely follows how such cases are handled on the global stage. A peaceful resolution that respects international rulings would be in India’s interest, as it sets an example for dealing with similar situations. On the other hand, if the matter is resolved through military force or unilateral actions, it may create a precedent that could be used in other disputes across the region.
India has already issued travel warnings for its citizens in Cambodia and Thailand due to the current violence. No airlines have canceled flights yet, but there may be changes if the conflict spreads or worsens. Indian citizens living in or visiting these countries may be affected by rising tensions, delayed flights, or curfews. Businesses operating in Southeast Asia may also have to take extra precautions or prepare for emergency plans.
When comparing the military and economic capabilities of the two countries involved, Thailand has the upper hand. Thailand has a population of around 70 million and a GDP close to $500 billion. Its defense budget is over $5 billion and includes advanced military equipment like tanks, artillery, and fighter jets. Cambodia, with a population of about 17 million and a GDP of around $30 billion, has a much smaller military. Although Cambodia has made efforts to modernize its defense, it still relies heavily on support from allies like China. This gap in military power may influence the direction and length of the conflict. If it continues for an extended period, international pressure might increase, and countries like India could be called upon to assist in diplomatic or humanitarian roles.
