Over the past few weeks, precious metal markets have seen a sharp rise, especially in gold and silver prices. On July 23, gold prices in India crossed the one lakh mark per 10 grams for the first time. Silver prices too surged, setting a new record. This increase is being driven by a mix of global economic concerns, rising geopolitical tensions, and ongoing trade negotiations. Market analysts are closely watching key levels as investors seek clarity on where these price trends may lead.
Gold prices have continued their upward trend in India. On July 23, MCX Gold August contracts were trading at ₹1,00,454 per 10 grams by 5:10 PM. In parallel, silver hit an all-time high, with MCX Silver September contracts at ₹1,16,470 per kg, after reaching a session peak of ₹1,16,551. The market movement is attributed to strong demand, a stable dollar, and firm buying in the spot market.
Globally, the price of gold hovered around $3,410 per ounce on the same day. While this marked a slight drop from recent highs, the overall trend remains positive. The upward movement is being driven by a range of external factors, including global trade discussions, monetary policy signals from the US Federal Reserve, and geopolitical unease.
US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a new trade deal with Japan added a fresh element to the market outlook. Under the deal, the US will impose a 15% tariff on imports from Japan, which is seen as a lighter step compared to earlier threats of higher duties. Such agreements hint at progress in trade negotiations but also introduce uncertainty, which tends to support gold prices.
Trade talks between the US and other large economies, such as India and China, are ongoing. A US delegation is expected to visit India in August for the next round of discussions on a bilateral trade agreement. Meanwhile, US officials are set to meet their Chinese counterparts in Stockholm to extend the negotiation deadline to August 12. Although successful trade deals could draw investors back into equities, any delays or breakdowns could push more money into safe-haven assets like gold.
The US dollar index has been trading near a two-week low. At the same time, yields on the 10-year US Treasury bonds dropped to their lowest levels since early July. These two factors support gold prices. When yields fall and the dollar weakens, gold becomes more attractive because it does not yield interest and becomes cheaper for those holding other currencies.
Market attention is also turning to the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. There is speculation about whether the Fed will cut interest rates in the coming months. Lower interest rates generally benefit gold, as they reduce the opportunity cost of holding it.
According to Ross Maxwell from VT Markets, several ongoing factors continue to support gold. Tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine have contributed to a climate of caution. In such a situation, gold often becomes the preferred investment. Maxwell pointed out that the US dollar’s weakness, caused by lower growth expectations and hopes of a rate cut, is making gold cheaper for many buyers. He also noted that the gold chart remains strong from a technical viewpoint. Traders are looking to buy on dips, expecting further gains.
Silver has mirrored this strong performance. As of July 23, it stood above $39 an ounce globally. This is near the highest level since 2011. The price rise is supported by the same market drivers pushing up gold—especially investor demand during uncertain times.
Market experts have also highlighted certain levels that traders are watching. Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvifinmart Commodity Research explained that gold has support around $3,422–$3,409 and resistance at $3,454–$3,472 per troy ounce. For silver, support stands at $39.20–$38.84 and resistance at $39.80–$40.10 per troy ounce.
Domestically, MCX Gold has support between ₹99,720–₹99,200 and resistance at ₹1,00,700–₹1,01,000. Silver’s support is at ₹1,14,850–₹1,14,000 with resistance between ₹1,16,650–₹1,18,000. Jain suggested that investors consider buying silver within the ₹1,15,200–₹1,14,400 range, setting a stop loss at ₹1,13,300 and aiming for a target between ₹1,16,650–₹1,18,000.
Rahul Kalantri from Mehta Equities echoed similar support and resistance levels. He noted that gold’s support in dollars is at $3,395–$3,378, and resistance at $3,445–$3,462. In rupee terms, support is at ₹99,780–₹99,450, while resistance is at ₹1,00,550–₹1,00,880. For silver, support lies at ₹1,14,780–₹1,13,850, with resistance between ₹1,16,450–₹1,16,950.
Jigar Trivedi from Reliance Securities added that the MCX Gold August contract may fall to ₹1,00,000 in intraday trade, with resistance at ₹1,00,900. These levels provide useful entry and exit points for active traders.
In just five days, gold prices in India increased by ₹2.5 lakh per kilogram, according to spot market trends. On July 23, the MCX spot market price settled at ₹1,00,130, up from ₹99,026 the previous day. Internationally, gold has climbed over 42% in the past year, while silver is up over 36%.
The ongoing global volatility is a major driver. Tariffs, political conflict, and monetary policies are all adding to market stress. Trump’s approach to trade deals has been unpredictable, keeping markets on edge. The recent US-Japan deal involves reciprocal tariffs and has lifted hopes for other deals with countries like Indonesia and the Philippines. However, talks with the EU and China remain uncertain.
The market is now watching how the US Federal Reserve responds. Many expect no rate changes in the next meeting, but traders are pricing in possible cuts later this year. Any clear sign of lower rates could support gold further.
In China, a major gold-buying nation, trends are shifting. June 2025 saw a slowdown in gold consumption. Still, the first half of the year recorded record investments in gold ETFs. According to the World Gold Council, China poured ₹64,000 crore (around $8.8 billion) into gold ETFs between January and June. This reflects a change in consumer behaviour, with more people seeing gold as an investment rather than jewellery.
Wholesale gold jewellery sales dropped by 10% in June. This was caused by high prices discouraging buyers. A total of 90 tonnes were sold, far below the ten-year average. Overall withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange reached 678 tonnes in the first six months, marking an 18% drop from last year. This decline shows the pressure high prices can place on retail demand.
Despite the decline in jewellery demand, the People’s Bank of China added 19 tonnes of gold to its reserves in the first half of the year. China’s total reserves now stand at 2,299 tonnes. Gold futures trading slowed slightly in June, but the daily volume for the first half of the year reached 534 tonnes, the highest on record.
Imports of gold into China also dropped in May. Only 89 tonnes were brought in, a fall of 21% from April and 31% compared to May of the previous year. Jewellery demand is the key reason behind this drop. However, there is rising interest in other gold investments, like ETFs, bars, and coins.
This growing demand in China is influencing gold prices in India. Higher international demand could lead to increased prices at home. This may reduce gold sales during key occasions such as weddings and festivals, which would affect jewellers and small traders in the country.
Looking ahead, the direction of gold and silver prices will depend on many factors. These include the strength of the US dollar, central bank actions, and how global trade negotiations unfold. Any further unrest or economic concerns could drive prices higher. On the other hand, if calm returns to financial markets, prices might stabilise or even pull back.
