In the early hours of February 6, 2023, when two powerful earthquakes shook southeastern Turkey, millions of people were caught off guard. More than 55,000 lives were lost, and over 100,000 people were injured. Despite having a global early warning system active at the time, Google’s Android Earthquake Alerts (AEA) failed to deliver timely high-level alerts to those most at risk.
The AEA system, which uses smartphone sensors to detect seismic activity, was intended to act as a digital safety net in countries lacking robust national alert mechanisms. In Turkey—where over 70% of phones use the Android operating system—it should have been a key tool to help residents respond in time. But instead of issuing the strongest available warnings to those near the epicenter, the system underestimated the shaking and left millions unaware of what was coming.
Only a Few High-Level Alerts Sent
Google confirmed that only 469 “Take Action” alerts—the most serious warning type that overrides phone settings with a loud alarm—were issued for the first and strongest quake, which had a magnitude of 7.8. This is a small fraction of the 10 million people who were within the zone eligible to receive that level of alert.
Instead, approximately half a million users received a weaker “Be Aware” notification, which does not make a loud sound or override silent modes. While this lower-tier alert can be useful for less intense shaking, it was inadequate for a disaster of this scale—especially since the quake occurred at 4:17 a.m., when most people were asleep.
Early Praise Met With Scrutiny
Initially, Google suggested the system had performed as expected. But months later, journalists from the BBC conducted a broad investigation, speaking to people across the affected region in an effort to find users who had received the critical Take Action alert before the shaking began. They couldn’t find any.
This led to further questioning of how the system had evaluated the earthquake. As it turned out, Google’s detection algorithm estimated the magnitude to be between 4.5 and 4.9—far below the actual intensity of 7.8. As a result, the AEA failed to classify the quake as a major threat and didn’t trigger the mass alerts that could have given people time to react.
Second Quake, Still Not Enough
Later that same day, a second strong earthquake struck the same region. This time, the system performed slightly better, sending out over 8,000 Take Action alerts and nearly four million Be Aware notifications. But even then, experts said the warning coverage remained well below what was needed, especially considering the widespread devastation.
Google later published findings in a scientific journal, pointing to algorithmic limitations as the reason the first quake was underestimated.
Changes Made After the Disaster
Following the tragic failure, Google revised its earthquake detection models and ran simulations using the new algorithms. In these tests, the system identified the first quake more accurately and would have issued 10 million Take Action alerts, alongside 67 million Be Aware messages for people farther from the epicenter.
Google emphasized that earthquake detection, particularly for large magnitude events, is inherently complex. Still, the updated model is now expected to deliver more accurate alerts in future quakes.
How Google’s Earthquake System Works
The AEA system relies on crowdsourced data from Android smartphones. When phones detect movement that matches the pattern of seismic waves, they send the data to a central server. If a quake is confirmed, alerts are sent out to other users in the area before the shaking reaches them, taking advantage of the few seconds’ delay between the tremor’s origin and its arrival.
Two types of alerts exist:
- Take Action: Sent for potentially dangerous shaking; includes an alarm and a full-screen warning.
- Be Aware: Sent for lighter shaking; appears as a standard notification without interrupting a device in silent mode.
Concerns Over Overreliance on Private Systems
The failure in Turkey has reignited debate about how much responsibility private companies like Google should bear in emergency response. While Google has described its system as supplementary to national warning infrastructures, in many parts of the world, AEA is the only warning tool available.
Some experts have raised concerns that governments may depend too heavily on tech solutions without fully understanding their limitations. Others have called for greater transparency in how such systems are tested and evaluated.
