Morgan Stanley has forecasted a major shift in the robotics industry, predicting that eight million humanoid robots—robots designed to resemble humans—will be created by 2040. According to the financial services giant, this transformation is expected to occur at a faster rate than the adoption of autonomous cars, with a significant amount of capital being allocated to the development of humanoids. Tesla, Inc. is uniquely positioned to drive and benefit from this burgeoning sector.
Rapid Adoption and Capital Investment
The shift towards humanoid robotics is gaining traction more quickly than the transition to autonomous vehicles, Morgan Stanley noted in a recent report. The firm highlighted that a larger corpus of capital is anticipated to be deployed for the development of humanoid robots, compared to the investments seen in the autonomous car industry. “We believe the humanoids opportunity is far bigger and faster adopting than autonomous cars and will see a greater quantum of capital behind it. Tesla is at the epicenter of the theme,” the report stated.
Economic Impact and Future Projections
Morgan Stanley’s model, which bases its projections on a $30 trillion global labor market, estimates a humanoid population of 8 million units by 2040, impacting global wages by $357 billion. By 2050, the firm projects 63 million humanoids, with a potential $3 trillion impact on wages. These staggering numbers reflect the significant economic influence that humanoid robots could exert globally.
 Elon Musk’s Vision for Humanoids
Tesla CEO Elon Musk has been vocal about his vision for the future of humanoid robots. In June, Musk suggested that humanoids could eventually outnumber humans by a ratio of two-to-one or even higher. “One-to-one for sure. So, which means like somewhere on the order of 10 billion humanoid robots. Maybe, maybe, maybe 20 billion or 30 billion,” Musk said during Tesla’s latest annual meeting.
Musk expects Tesla’s humanoid bot, Optimus, to enter limited production next year, with a few thousand units being deployed on Tesla’s factory floors. These bots are being developed to handle repetitive tasks through large-scale deployment. By 2026, Musk anticipates significant advancements in Optimus, with the software becoming fully customizable to meet specific customer needs.
Tesla’s Evolving Business Model
While Tesla’s automotive business currently accounts for over 90% of its revenue, Musk envisions a future where the company’s clean energy, robotaxi, and humanoid projects take precedence. He believes that these projects will eventually eclipse the automotive sector. Although this vision is still far from reality, Musk has made ambitious projections, suggesting that Tesla could one day generate around $1 trillion in annual profit from its humanoid project alone. Despite not committing to a specific timeframe, Musk mentioned the possibility of Tesla achieving a valuation ten times that of the most valuable company today. As of July 1, Tesla’s market capitalization was approximately $670 billion, down from a peak of $1.2 trillion in late 2021.
The potential for humanoid robots has also attracted interest from other tech giants. In April, reports indicated that Apple Inc. is exploring the field of personal robotics, signaling its pursuit of the next major technological breakthrough. This move underscores the broader industry interest in humanoid robotics and highlights the competitive landscape that Tesla will navigate.
The projection of Morgan Stanley about eight million humanoids by 2040 marks a significant anticipated transformation in the robotics industry. The rapid adoption of humanoid robots, driven by substantial capital investment, positions companies like Tesla at the forefront of this shift. With Elon Musk’s bold vision and ambitious projections, Tesla aims to redefine its business model and dominate the emerging humanoid sector. The economic impact of this transformation could be profound, with substantial implications for global labor markets and technological innovation.
As other tech giants like Apple enter the fray, the competition in the humanoid robotics space is set to intensify. The next few decades will likely witness remarkable advancements and widespread adoption of humanoid robots, fundamentally altering various aspects of industry and daily life.
