Donald Trump has indicated he may announce reciprocal tariffs on all partner countries. This announcement is expected just before Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s scheduled visit to Washington D.C. on February 12 and 13.
Trump’s Tariff Announcement:
In order to guarantee that the United States is treated fairly in trade with other nations, President Trump declared his plan to announce reciprocal tariffs the next week. “Equalize it” is what he sought to do. During a meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, the announcement was made. Trump said the move would impact “everyone,” although he did not outline the precise consequences. The proposed tariffs might replace a universal import duty scheme of 10–20% that was previously discussed.
Impact on India-US Trade:
India will be significantly impacted by the announcement. India held a trade surplus of $36.8 billion in the fiscal year ended March 2024, and bilateral trade between the U.S. and India hit a record $118.2 billion. India exported $77.5 billion to the United States. The United States is India’s top destination for merchandise exports, which make up over 18% of the country’s total value. India is a significant exporter to the United States. Possible increases in tariffs would reduce the value of India’s exports to the US.
India’s Response and Modi’s Visit:
In response to pressure from the United States, India is apparently preparing to revise import taxes on more than 30 commodities, including solar cells and luxury cars, ahead of Modi’s visit. Trade, defense, and energy cooperation are expected to be the main topics of the visit. Reducing import taxes, boosting purchases of American energy and defense hardware, and resolving long-standing trade disputes are probably going to be the main topics of discussion. Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla, is among the notable American business leaders with whom Modi is also expected to meet.
Broader Implications and Affected Sectors:
A number of industries could be impacted by the proposed tariffs. Trump said more tariffs might be applied on imported cars in particular. Indian businesses that supply the North American auto industry may be impacted by this. Given that over half of India’s software exports are to the United States and Canada, the prospect of reciprocal tariffs may also have an impact for IT equities. Industries like medicines and textiles may also be impacted.
India’s Efforts to Appease:
Trump’s trade goals are already being followed by Modi’s administration. India reduced import taxes, especially those on luxury motorcycles, which would help American businesses like Harley-Davidson Inc. Additionally, India has begun repatriating illegal immigrants from the United States. These moves imply that India is attempting to avert a trade war by compromising on matters that are significant to Trump.
Other Considerations:
As part of the discussions to improve the trade relationship between the two countries, India may offer to increase its purchases of defense equipment, such as fighter jets and drones, and oil from the U.S. The two countries will also discuss cooperation on nuclear energy and advanced nuclear technologies. The situation highlights the delicate balance India must strike between protecting its own economic interests and maintaining a strong relationship with the U.S.
