As per Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, who specialize in exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the chances of a Bitcoin spot ETF approval being introduced in the United States have risen to 65%. They credit this surge to the influence of BlackRock and potentially the Democratic party, factors that could prompt action from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The rise of Bitcoin, as both an asset class and a store of value, has sparked immense interest from institutional investors. However, the lack of a regulated ETF has been a major hurdle preventing these large investors from entering the crypto market with full force. If approved, a Bitcoin ETF would allow investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin’s price movements without the need to directly hold the digital asset, thereby reducing some of the perceived risks associated with cryptocurrency investments.
Analysts attribute the rise in the odds of a U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF to 65% to the influence of BlackRock
After a surge in Bitcoin spot ETF approval filings and revisions, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is now facing multiple applications awaiting review. In June, BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager in terms of assets under management (AUM), submitted its spot Bitcoin ETF application, leading to several other contenders following suit. On August 2, 2023, Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas publicly shared their perspectives on the SEC’s possible approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF.
“On the social media platform X, Seyffart announced that, due to recent developments and additional information, he and Eric Balchunas are officially raising their spot Bitcoin ETF approval odds to 65%. This significant increase comes after their previous estimate of 50% just a couple of weeks ago and a mere 1% a few months back.” Seyffart’s post also includes a joint statement from both analysts confirming this update.
Surging Odds: Key Developments and Political Pressures Propel Spot Bitcoin ETF Chances to 65%
In our assessment, the likelihood of a spot Bitcoin ETF being launched this year has risen to 65% due to a series of significant developments. These include Gary Gensler downplaying his role at the SEC, the commission’s implicit approval of Coinbase’s Bitcoin exchange, Grayscale’s efforts to minimize other filings, and the SEC’s loss in front of the same judges in the Grayscale case. Additionally, the mounting pressure from BlackRock and potentially Democrats could create political challenges for Gensler if he were to deny the ETFs.
Seyffart’s team highlights that they are making speculative assumptions regarding the timing of the Grayscale case dates. However, they firmly believe that the most straightforward scenario involves the simultaneous approval of all eight filers, along with Grayscale, following the court’s decision to overturn the SEC’s previous denial. Seyffart emphasizes that the pivotal factor in this process is Grayscale’s potential victory over the SEC in federal court, which could pave the way for a wave of SEC approvals during the fourth quarter. Nonetheless, Seyffart acknowledges that the outcome ultimately depends on how determined Gensler is to contest the matter.
The likelihood of a Bitcoin spot ETF approval gaining approval in the United States has significantly increased to 65%, driven by various factors, including BlackRock’s influence and recent market developments. Analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas point to the potential positive impact of a favourable outcome in the Grayscale case on the approval process. However, uncertainties remain, and the final decision will depend on the SEC’s stance and regulatory considerations. With the crypto community eagerly awaiting the SEC’s verdict, the path towards a Bitcoin ETF remains dynamic and closely watched by investors and enthusiasts alike.
Also Read: CEO Brian Armstrong Announces Bitcoin lightning network is coming to Coinbase.
