The already strained relations between India and Pakistan have once again come under serious pressure after a deadly terror attack in Jammu and Kashmir’s Pahalgam region. The attack, which claimed the lives of 26 individuals—mostly Indian tourists—has led to a flurry of accusations, diplomatic backlash, and heightened military readiness. As public anger grows and governments on both sides issue stern warnings and take aggressive steps, many fear that the two nuclear-armed neighbors may be edging closer to another conflict.
Former Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister and National Conference leader Farooq Abdullah condemned the Pahalgam attack and expressed deep concern over the deteriorating security situation. Speaking to reporters in Srinagar, Abdullah pointed to clear security and intelligence failures that allowed the attack to take place. He said that Pakistan’s hand in the violence could not be dismissed, stating that such attacks were meant to destabilize the region at a time when some semblance of normal life had been returning to the Valley. His warning that both countries were preparing for a possible military confrontation came amid wider diplomatic escalations.
The group that claimed responsibility for the Pahalgam attack, calling itself “Kashmir Resistance,” had not been previously known to intelligence agencies, and this has only added to suspicions about cross-border support. While Pakistan has officially denied any involvement, India maintains that the attack had “cross-border” links. In the past, similar incidents have been linked to groups that operate from Pakistani soil, often with the alleged backing of Pakistan’s intelligence agencies.
Following the incident, the Indian government swiftly acted by downgrading diplomatic ties with Islamabad. A series of decisions were announced in New Delhi, including suspending all visas issued to Pakistani nationals, reducing the size of the Pakistani mission in India, and cutting the number of Indian diplomats in Islamabad. The most provocative move, however, was the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, a long-standing water-sharing agreement between the two countries brokered by the World Bank in 1960. Pakistan responded by suspending its own diplomatic and trade ties and blocking Indian air traffic over its territory.
Pakistan warned that any attempt by India to divert water from rivers that flow into Pakistan would be considered an act of war. The Indus Water Treaty has survived past conflicts, including full-scale wars, but Pakistan’s response shows how fragile the agreement has become in the current climate. With parts of the country already dealing with water shortages and drought, the stakes are extremely high.
The decision to revoke visas for Pakistani nationals has led to humanitarian concerns. Farooq Abdullah criticized the move and said it was unjust to ask individuals who have been living in India for decades to leave the country. Some of the affected people have lived in India for as long as 70 years. Abdullah said that punishing civilians who had nothing to do with the violence was not a solution and would only deepen the divide between the people of both nations.
In the aftermath of the attack, Indian and Pakistani forces exchanged fire along the Line of Control (LoC), the de facto border in the disputed Kashmir region. Indian military officials confirmed the exchange and said there were no casualties. Pakistan has not officially confirmed the skirmish but has not denied it either. These brief but regular flare-ups are not new but can quickly escalate into larger conflicts, as seen in the past.
This recent series of events brings back memories of the 2019 Pulwama attack, where 40 Indian paramilitary personnel were killed in a suicide bombing. In response, India launched airstrikes across the LoC, claiming to have targeted a terror training camp. Pakistan retaliated, resulting in an aerial dogfight and the capture of an Indian pilot who was later released. Though tensions cooled at the time, they never fully disappeared.
The repeated cycle of militant attacks, military responses, and diplomatic breakdowns continues to block all efforts toward lasting peace in the region. In recent years, the two sides have shown little interest in constructive dialogue. India has accused Pakistan of encouraging terrorist groups and interfering in Kashmir, while Pakistan claims that India has violated the human rights of Kashmiri Muslims and imposed heavy security measures that have affected daily life in the region.
The situation grew more tense after India, under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, revoked Article 370 in August 2019, stripping Jammu and Kashmir of its special status and turning it into two Union Territories under central government control. The move drew criticism from Pakistan and led to further deterioration of bilateral ties. Since then, Kashmir has remained under tight security with restrictions on civil liberties and media, according to rights groups.
Public sentiment on both sides has also hardened. In India, there is growing frustration about Pakistan’s alleged support to militants. Meanwhile, in Pakistan, India’s decision to revoke Kashmir’s autonomy and its strong military presence in the region are widely viewed as aggressive and provocative. This hostile atmosphere has left little room for diplomatic solutions, with both sides unwilling to make concessions.
The recent statements made by Pakistan Army Chief General Asim Munir, in which he invoked the two-nation theory, have been seen in India as an attempt to justify renewed hostility. Abdullah, reacting to the statement, said such comments only provoke more distrust. He warned that war might soon come to the negotiation table, but the consequences would be unpredictable. His remarks reflect a deep fear that this time, the tensions may not be resolved through backdoor diplomacy.
Both India and Pakistan are nuclear powers with large standing armies and growing military budgets. India first tested a nuclear weapon in 1974, and Pakistan followed suit in 1998. Since then, both nations have built up their nuclear arsenals and continue to upgrade delivery systems and defense technology. Any large-scale conflict between the two would risk not only regional but global consequences.
Despite the current standoff, no third country has yet stepped in to mediate. The United States, China, and Russia have previously played a role in defusing tensions, especially after the Kargil War in 1999. This time, however, the global focus is divided due to ongoing conflicts elsewhere, and no nation has yet issued a strong statement calling for peace or offered to mediate.
Another layer of the conflict is tied to militant attacks that repeatedly derail diplomatic efforts. For decades, attempts at peace talks have been followed by terror attacks that bring both sides back to confrontation. In 2008, the Mumbai attacks carried out by Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba militants killed 166 people, including foreigners. India held Pakistan’s intelligence agencies responsible, and efforts at dialogue were suspended for years. A similar pattern has followed many other incidents.
Peace remains elusive also because of the political narratives in both countries. In India, the government has taken a strong position on terrorism and national security, with little room for negotiation unless Pakistan cracks down on terror groups operating from its soil. In Pakistan, leaders have accused India of denying the rights of Kashmiri Muslims and ignoring the demand for self-determination. These positions make it difficult for any leader to pursue dialogue without facing backlash at home.
