According to a new study, ExxonMobil experts have been accurately predicting global warming caused by human-induced emissions since the 1970s, even as the oil giant pushed and started campaigns to put off taking action on climate change.
Numerous fossil fuel industries have attempted to persuade the public for decades that it is impossible to draw a direct connection between the use of fossil fuels and global warming, claiming that the climate models used to predict changes in Earth’s temperature are inaccurate.
The new study, which was released in the journal Science on Friday, was the first to systematically evaluate the internal climate estimates of the fossil fuel sector.
Based on previously unreported data hidden in the internal documents of the Oil Giant, scientists from Harvard University and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in the US evaluated the accuracy of global warming projections reported by ExxonMobil Corp and Exxon scientists between year 1977 and 2003.
The majority of the company’s predictions were found to be accurate in predicting warming in line with future observations, and its predictions were also “consistent” with, “and at least as skillful as,” those of independent academic and government models.
According to the findings, what the oil firms knew internally about climate models differed from what they told the public.
ExxonMobil disproved the conclusions made by its own scientists
According to the study, ExxonMobil made an effort to disprove the conclusions reached by its own scientists by employing tactics like denigrating climate models, overstating the analyses uncertainties, mythologizing global cooling, and claiming ignorance regarding the feasibility of estimating human-caused warming.
Contrary to the conclusions of its own experts, the business, for instance, stated in 2004 that “scientific uncertainties continue to limit our ability to make objective, quantitative determinations regarding the human role in recent climate change.”
“Exxon and ExxonMobil Corp also correctly rejected the prospect of a coming ice age, accurately predicted when human-caused global warming would first be detected, and reasonably estimated the ‘carbon budget’ for holding warming below 2°C,” scientists wrote in the study.
However, on each of these points, the company’s public statements about climate science “contradicted its scientific data,” researchers say.
“Our analysis shows that ExxonMobil’s own data contradicted its public statements, which included exaggerating uncertainties, criticizing climate models, mythologising global cooling, and feigning ignorance about when – or if – human-caused global warming would be measurable, all while staying silent on the threat of stranded fossil fuel assets,” study lead author Geoffrey Supran said.
