In recent reports by Goldman Sachs, Tesla humanoid robots could be a $150 billion-a-year business within the next 15 years. The concept of having robots do menial tasks and reduce labor costs has been there for years. However, it has taken on a different meaning with various developments in robotics.
Already, robots have taken over many tasks and jobs, but we are talking about purpose-built. They are programmed robots for specific tasks, not the general-purpose humanoid robots that science fiction sold us. But every now and again, there’s a resurgence of humanoid robots. And some companies gather around projects, like the Honda Asimo. Now Tesla is leading another humanoid robot resurgence with its Tesla Bot project, and this resurgence feels different because Tesla seems committed to not only delivering a new robot but also to putting its manufacturing power behind it, making it’s Tesla Bot an actual widely available product.
Goldman Sachs has been keeping an eye on this humanoid robot resurgence led by Tesla and today, the firm released a new report about an early investment case for the market. In the report, the firm estimates that the humanoid robot market could be worth $154 billion by 2035, or about as much as the EV market. It has been Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s own prediction.
The firm describes the “blue-sky scenario”. “Should the hurdles of product design, use case, technology, affordability, and wide public acceptance be completely overcome, we envision a market of up to US$152bn by 2035E in a blue-sky scenario (close to that of the global EV market and one-third of the global smartphone market as of 2021), which suggests labor shortage issues such as for manufacturing and elderly care can be solved to a large extent.”
In the report, Goldman Sachs wrote, “The launch of Tesla’s humanoid robot prototype, the “Optimus”, has again sparked debate about the financial opportunities of such innovation. The investment case for humanoid robots is sizable – we estimate that in 10-15 years a market size of at least US$6bn is achievable to fill 4$ of the US manufacturing labor shortage gap by 2030E and 2% of global elderly care demand by 2035E.”
Tesla continues to expand its electric vehicle business. Total production increased from the prior quarter of 2022 when the company said it made 258,580 cars. Tesla produced 19,935 of its more expensive Model S and X vehicles, and 345,988 of its more popular Model 3 and Y vehicles during Q3, according to its report.